Cloverdale, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

146
FXUS66 KMTR 061052
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
252 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

...New MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

 - Hazardous beach conditions from swells through Saturday
   evening at Pacific Coast beaches.

 - 20 to 40% chance of rain in the North Bay Sunday night.

 - Better chances for rain middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 115 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026
(Today through Saturday)

Recent KMUX imagery shows scattered returns moving northward over
the Central Coast this morning. This is in response to mid level
moisture moving northward along a passing upper level low that
will travel southeastward over the ocean down the Central Coast
today. No measurable precipitation is expected, but given that
KMUX is getting some echos between 20-30 dBz, went ahead and threw
in mention of isolated sprinkles down the Big Sur coast for this
morning. Regardless, the vast majority of the area will remain
dry, with only an increase in cloud cover today. However, that
increased cloud cover will help minimize any valley fog this
morning. Temperatures are expected to still climb just slightly
above seasonal norms today, but with the increased cloud cover and
cooler air moving in with the low, it should feel a little cooler
compared to recently.

Weak ridging is expected to return tonight and into Saturday.
This should help clear some of the skies out tonight which may
allow for radiational fog development in valley locations.
Otherwise, the cooler airmass should provide similar temperatures
on Saturday with highs in the 60s and upper 50s/low 60s along the
coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 115 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026
(Saturday Night through Thursday)

The pattern begins to shift on Sunday. While the weak ridge will
remain in place over Central California during the day on Sunday,
a longwave trough in the northeast Pacific will begin to make it
slow movement southward down the British Columbia coastline. This
wave will eventually send a couple of shorter waves that can
provide additional chances for rain through the middle of next
week.

The first weak short wave is expected to eject away from this
parent wave and move over the Pacific northwest Sunday evening.
With the majority of ensemble members continuing to highlight the
higher QPF in the Pacific northwest, blended PoPs were adjusted
down for Sunday evening to confine the highest chances (20 to 40
percent) to the North Bay. This left just a 15 to 20 percent
chance that light rain makes it to the city of San Francisco with
a less than 15 percent chance it makes it to the South Bay (and
even then it probably would not reach the South Bay until around
or after midnight). Regardless, the amount of rain is expected to
be only a couple hundredths in the North Bay and less to the
south.

Models are projecting a more stout shortwave trough to descend
down the coastline Tuesday through Wednesday. Cluster analysis is
highlighting that models are still struggling with the depth and
track of the upper level trough. However, with increased moisture
and better forcing, it looks like a better chance for rain across
the forecast area. Higher coastal elevations could see over a
quarter of an inch of rain, but inland areas could be impacted by
the rain shadow and see much less. Lastly, a cooler air mass aloft
will accompany this trough, allowing for temperatures next week
to return to more seasonable norms.

Once that trough passes there could be a break in the precip
toward the end of next week. However, models are keeping an active
pattern aloft which may bring another rainy system to the area
next weekend. It is still a little too early for the details, but
something to certainly keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 941 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026

Mainly VFR at the terminals, except locally lower visibility to
MVFR conditions due to haze. Mid to high clouds should limit fog
formation overnight. However, a low chance of fog still exists
near KSTS/KAPC. Winds overnight will be light and diurnally
driven. Locally breezy conditions with any light, passing
showers late tonight into Friday morning. An uptick of onshore
winds will bring higher chances of coastal stratus/mist overnight,
but extent should be limited. Potential for ceiling/vis impacts
from stratus/mist will increase Friday night into Saturday morning
as onshore winds become more widespread.

Vicinity of SFO...Mid to high clouds should limit chances for
HZ/BR forming Friday morning. Winds light NW overnight. Low
potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight into Friday morning.
Could see some sprinkles during this time. Higher potential for
stratus to return Friday night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Mid to high clouds should limit chances
for HZ/BR forming Friday morning. Winds light overnight. Low
potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight into Friday morning near
KOAK. Could see some sprinkles during this time. Higher potential
for stratus to return Friday night.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR expected overnight into Friday
morning under mid to high clouds. Could see some sprinkles
during this time. Light southeast winds overnight through Friday
morning, becoming northwest Friday afternoon. Higher potential
for stratus to return Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

A shallow cool air mass drifting over the coastal waters will
result in light to gentle northwest winds today in to Saturday.
Hazardous seas over the coastal waters today continues tonight
and early Saturday morning before seas diminish. A cold front
moves southeastward over the coastal waters and bays Sunday night
resulting in an increase in northwesterly winds Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 247 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

A High Surf Advisory will be in effect beginning 4 AM PST today
at all Pacific Coast beaches, the High Surf Advisory continues
through 9 PM Saturday. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk
for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves 17 to
22 feet.

Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back
on the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM PST early this morning for
     CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay-Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10
     nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM....DK
AVIATION...Tangen
MARINE...Canepa

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